Position Analytics
Build positions, analyze payoffs, calculate expected value and optimal bet sizing
$
(for Kelly criterion calculation)Build Position
Loading markets...
Analytics
Add legs to your position to see analytics
How to Use This Tool
1. Build Your Position
Add one or more market legs. For each leg, choose YES or NO, long (buy) or short (sell), and specify the quantity and entry price.
2. Set Your Estimates
Use the probability slider to input your own estimate of the true probability. This enables Expected Value and Kelly calculations.
3. Analyze the Payoff
The payoff chart shows your P&L at different outcome probabilities. Use breakeven points and max profit/loss to understand your risk.
Key Metrics Explained
- Expected Value (EV)
- Your expected profit based on your probability estimate. Positive EV means the bet is favorable in the long run.
- Kelly Criterion
- The mathematically optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet. We show half-Kelly (safer) as the recommended size.
- Edge
- The difference between your estimated probability and the market price. Positive edge means you think the market is underpricing.
- Breakeven
- The outcome probability at which you neither profit nor lose. Compare this to your estimate and market price.